Today is Day Four of Early Voting in what is predicted to be a very low turnout primary in Harris County. I'm no Charles Kuffner by any stretch of the imagination when it comes to analyzing the numbers and making any predictions, but I do feel pretty comfortable in saying that none of the races affecting the CJC are decided by a long shot.
The biggest enemy that outstanding candidates like Judge Mike Anderson, Joe Vinas, Ryan Patrick, Kristin Guiney and Renee Magee can have at this point is the apathetic voter who thinks the election is decided and doesn't vote.
I don't like bringing up the 2008 Republican Primary, but there couldn't be a more relevant illustration of what happens when a good candidate's supporters get complacent about their candidate winning.
Remember in 2008, the numbers looked like this in the Republican Primary:
KELLY SIEGLER -- 58,208 votes
PAT LYKOS -- 44,014 votes
JIM LEITNER -- 23, 851 votes
DOUG PERRY -- 14,831 votes
Because of Kelly's large margin over Lykos, people didn't think they really needed to vote in the primary -- and look what happened.
PAT LYKOS --21,106 votes
KELLY SIEGLER -- 18,962 votes
The attitude of "I don't need to vote" brought us Pat Lykos.
This year, because there is no third (or fourth) party spoiler in the Primary, we are guaranteed that there will be no run-off in the District Attorney race nor the Criminal District Court races. That makes your vote now more critical than ever.
Thus far (through Wednesday) the votes returned in the Republican Primary Early Voting are as follows:
MAIL-IN BALLOTS RETURNED: 11,430
IN-PERSON EARLY VOTERS: 10,205
Keep in mind that the mail-in ballots helped Lykos immensely in 2008.
In the original primary, she got 43.76% of the Absentee Vote compared to Kelly Siegler's 35.98%.
In the run-off, that number jumped to Lykos receiving 55.31% of the Absentee Vote to Kelly's 44.69%. That margin alone created a divide that Kelly couldn't overcome on Election Day.
So, please don't listen to anyone telling you that this election has already been either won or lost. It is still anyone's game.
You don't have to live on the verge of a nervous break-down over worrying that the election can't be won.
But, more importantly, you damn sure can't be feeling that it has already been won.
Go vote!!!
16 comments:
Exit polls don't matter. Ask Al Gore!
Pre election polls don't matter. Anyone ever heard of President Dewey? (no because Truman beat him)
Endorsements don't matter. Ask Rachel Palmer and Danny Dexter.
Votes and only votes matter. Now go vote. Tell your friends. Take them to vote.
Voted early today. Let me just say that voting for Mike, Kristin, Vinas, Leslie Johnson and Paul Simpson felt even better than voting for Don Smyh in 2010. I did not think it was possible. Go try it for yourself.
Murray,
Here's another Kelly Siegler factoid I just heard about this afternoon.....
"Cold Justice - This docudrama scheduled to start filming in June 2012, produced by Emmy winners for such series as Law & Order, Project Runway and Top Chef, will follow former prosecutor Kelly Siegler and crime scene investigator Yolanda McClary as they crack cold cases. Executive Producers: Dick Wolf, Tom Thayer, Dan Cutforth and Jane Lipsitz. Production Companies: Wolf Films and Magical Elves."
I hope you'll share with her all the best wishes for continued success........when she wins an Emmy that ought to put the political BS in perspective!
Lykos is trying to win this election by keeping Mike supporters away from the polls. I do not know who posted there was an exit poll taken at Tracy Gee Center but I have confirmed with people working Tracy Gee Center there have been no exit polls taken. Lykos will do anything to win. Get out and vote. Take 5 friends with you, then walk your street or call more friends and take them to vote. This is not over until the last vote is counted May 29.
Murray is absolutely right -- as few as 100 votes could decide the ultimate outcome, so take 10 minutes and go vote! My wife and I voted at lunch time today at the Nottingham Park early polling location and there were no lines --very simple process that took all of 10 minutes. Isn't 10 minutes a small price to pay to ensure we have new leadership in the DA's office?
By the way, lots of selections to make, so it is OK to bring a cheat sheet with your notes into the voting booth with you. The DA's race is easy, but there are many other selections to make and a cheat sheet can save significant time as you scroll through the ballot!
Mark up two for Mike!!
heck, leave your cheat sheet there, so the next voter can defer to it when they don't know any of the candidates in the CJC area.
Slightly off topic, but:
According to channel 13, Lykos is a Democrat?
http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/video?id=8666170&pid=8666165
Her title appears at around 1:24.
Hey anonymous - nice idea, leaving trash in the voting booth. Only problem is, it's a crime. Like most election code violations, it's a class C, but I don't think even an Anderson supporter should be advocating breaking them. There are only 30 contested races in most precincts, so shouldn't take too long to vote. First week of early voting is notorious for low turnout. Last two days will often see lines as long as 45 minutes, depending on the location.
btw, my name is Tom Zakes, precinct judge, and I approve this message
Lykos might as well be a Democrat, considering how anti-law enforcement and pro-defendant she is.
"Only" 30 contested races...?
Ok Murray (you can either post in comments or highlight as a "guest" on your main blog if you really are willing to give this some exposure),
Here is an idea for you and the rest of the followers of this blog that are ready for a Prosecutor and not a Politician to lead the Harris County DA’s Office -- let's drop a money bomb on good ole Pat tomorrow. There is still another week of early voting to go, plus the regular voting date of May 29th, so some extra cash could help get additional time for some of the great ads that Mike is running.
Clearly getting out to vote yourself is a top priority and if you can convince family, friends, neighbors, etc that is great as well – elections are only won by actual votes being cast. This is the retail approach and the more of this we can deliver, the better. Unfortunately, though, in an election where 30 – 50,000 votes may be cast, you also have to have a wholesale approach – a means to reach the majority of voters that don’t know anything about the daily happenings at the CJC. To reach the average voter you have to have resources and, unfortunately, that means money. We may not like the system, but it is what we have and money is a necessary evil for reaching the normal citizen that will be making their decision based on some small snippet of information they hear in the day or two prior to entering the election booth.
I know contributing can be tough and many have already done a lot for the campaign, but even small amounts can add up. Contributing is easy – go to Mike’s website at: http://www.andersonda.com/contribute and click on the Donate Now! Button – this will bring up a page where you can quickly make a contribution on-line. Any amount is meaningful – they have an “Other” box you can select if you want to make a smaller donation. Skip one trip to Starbucks and you can afford $5 bucks; isn’t getting rid of Pat worth sacrificing one Starbucks fix? And, because I think a money bomb for Pat is great way to celebrate a Friday, I will match all the donations that we raise via this blog in the next 24 hours up to $500. Simply put in the box for middle name (not a required field on the form) the initials MSM (that’s short for “Murray Sent Me”) and I will have Sara and Elizabeth at the campaign provide me a total that I will match.
So, what could be better, double the value of your contribution and let’s give Pat a wonderful Friday present – are you game for dropping a bomb on Pat?
Sorry Tom, but you are way out of touch with what is really going on. Please pull your head out of your ass and talk to people who work in the CJC. You really have no idea.
Anon 10:15 p.m.,
Tom Zakes is a criminal defense attorney who practices regularly in the CJC (as well as being a Precinct Chair).
By the way folks, the offer made by 10:01 p.m. is a real offer. Lykos likes crowing about how much more money she has over Anderson, and although Anderson has out-raised her since entering the race, she had a good four year head start on him.
Remember that sometimes to get good government, you do have to contribute financially.
Forget the money bomb. She will go down by friendly fire. Lykos has three hundred employees and former ADAs working against her, plus the secretaries/HPD/QX who aren't thrilled with her either. There are a hell of a lot more of us than there are ladies who both lunch and can't read the newspaper.
Like many of you, I have politically minded, non-lawyer friends emailing ME about races they don't care about. I made them care about this one and they made their non-lawyer friends care. I would say I got at least 50 votes, maybe a lot more.
10:01 I was working at the polls all day so I did not see your post until now. I just donated another $500 to Mike. Now lets see all those ADAs and the $49.99.
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