Wednesday, March 4, 2020

2020 Primary Takeaways

The 2020 Democratic Primaries have now come and gone and as always, there is much to talk about.  There were some predictable moments and some surprises.  Some races told us who will be holding office in January, while others will still need to be decided in November.  Outside of the obvious results from last night, there were some other, more subtle takeaways to notice.

1.  The Party Turnout Differential-- I'm probably looking in the wrong place, but I can't find a source for the exact number of voters in the respective primaries.  However, I can see that 321,903 people voted in the Democratic Primary presidential race compared to 192,985 voting in the Republican Primary presidential race.  That approximately 129,000 vote difference could be partially explained by the fact that the Dem presidential race is contested while the Republican race is not.  However, it can't feel too reassuring to those Republican candidates on the ballot.

2.  The Houston Police Officers Union is a pretty influential group. Political newcomer Mary Nan Huffman avoided a runoff in a three-person race and she did so by a large margin.  Unlike the other two candidates, Lori Deangelo and Lloyd Oliver, Huffman isn't a Harris County CJC regular, either.  Her past experience was in the Montgomery County District Attorney's Office, followed by her stint as the HPOU's attorney.  Huffman was definitely the HPOU's candidate and she did quite well with her 63.5% of the vote.  It will be interesting to see how that translates in the general election.  I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that HPOU has significantly more influence on the Republican side than it does on the Dem side.

3.  Sexism is alive and well in the Republican Party... at least as it applies to the District Attorney's race.  Legal Disaster Lloyd Oliver won 35,728 votes which scored him a second-place finish over a seasoned former prosecutor and defense attorney.  That's about 35,728 more votes than Lloyd deserved.  He literally has no redeeming qualities that would earn him a single vote.  He's homophobic, sexist, kinda racist, and not all that bright.  The only reason I can possibly think of for that many people voting for Lloyd in the primary is that he was the only male on the ballot.

4.  The Progressive Movement isn't quite as powerful as its advocates believe. Three of the Democratic candidates for District Attorney (Kim Ogg, Audia Jones and Carvana Cloud) heavily campaigned on who was the most progressive candidate.  Jones earned the endorsement of several prominent Progressive groups, even the endorsement of Bernie Sanders, himself.  However, it didn't end up doing her that much good.  She got less than half (65,734) of the votes that Kim Ogg received (147,855).  Anybody that believes that the Progressive Movement is what gave Kim Ogg the Office in 2016 is silly -- it was simple Trump backlash.  It probably will be again in November.

5.  Old School Cronyism is Key to Primary Victory.  Speaking of our incumbent District Attorney, despite her first term in Office being beset with multiple controversies, she still managed to win and avoid a runoff, which is not an easy feat in a four-person race.  Ogg is an old school Democrat, like her father before her.  She had strong party ties that went back to before Audia Jones was even born.  She used positions in her Office to hire "community outreach" employees who, coincidentally, were old school Dems, too.  She had no problem receiving endorsement after endorsement from other Old School Dems, most of whom have little to no involvement in the Criminal Justice World.  It worked out well for her.

Photoshop courtesy of Luke Newman

6.  A Wild Batch of Judicial Races did not go well for the Men.  Incumbents won.  Incumbents lost.  A four-person race had a winner who dodged a runoff while a three-person race didn't.  There didn't seem to be a very strong pattern that weaved through all the races, except for one:  all the male candidates lost.  Whether it was challenger Bryan Acklin's loss to incumbent Judge Nikita Harmon or incumbents Randy Roll and George Powell losing to Ana Martinez and Natalia "Nata" Cornelio.  Colleen Gaido beat the three guys running against her and did it so convincingly that she avoided a runoff.  The only race going to a runoff is between Te'iva Bell and Candace White -- the one male in the race, Dennis Powell, came in third place.  Crazy!

So, once again the morning after an election is a mixed bag of good and bad, but the most tragic, yet uplifting story of yesterday was . . .

7.  The Voters Who Would Not Be Denied. Through a series of unfortunate events there were insane delays for voters at the end of the day yesterday.  Those in line at 7 p.m. got to vote, and some of those late arrivals ended up waiting for hours before they finally had the opportunity to cast their ballot.  The Hero of the Day Award goes to Hervis Rogers who waited for seven hours to cast his vote.  He shouldn't have had to, but he did.  


That's a man who knows the Power of the Ballot and he puts anyone who found it "too inconvenient" to get to the polls to shame.  

Everyone should value their vote as much.









22 comments:

Anonymous said...

I spoke to several women who commented they wanted to see a "strong man" take charge at the DAs office. These women didn't think a woman could run the DAs office and be tough on criminals. And I screamed at them, "NOT LLOYD OLIVER!!!"

Anonymous said...

HPOU and the new Harris County GOP chair Keith Neilson have their work cut out for them in bringing Mary Nan Huffman a victory - and Republican voters to the polls - in November. If they do, I’ll buy and personally deliver to Kim as a farewell gift a full box of those delicious Havana stogies like the one she’s enjoying in the photo.

Anonymous said...

Lloyd Oliver could have pulled in votes from name recognition as well. As poor a choice as he is for any elected office Murray, you've reminded us time and again how little most voters know candidates in the criminal justice system, Lloyd not increasing his presence enough for the others to remind the masses how he usually runs as a democrat.

I predict that if Sanders gets the democratic nomination for president, the GOP will fare much better than you expect. With Biden, he'll have to keep displaying his degrading mental capacity for that to happen.

Anonymous said...

Sanders does better with looser or no party affiliation (independents). Biden does better with voters who strongly identify as Democrats. Biden’s positions are fairly conservative (remember Obama brought him on to “balance” the ticket). Overall it looks like the Dems are leaning towards the “safer”/electable candidate. Will that work for the general? Probably won’t matter as much as how the economy and consumer confidence look in November. My guess is Trump beats Biden, Dems pick up more Congressional seats and Harris goes to the Dems again.

Anonymous said...

That polling location in the third ward must have been poorly managed, and I think we all know why.

Murray Newman said...

Anon 8:08 a.m.,

Please elaborate.

Anonymous said...

cuz they be in tha hood

Murray Newman said...

Using anonymity to hide racism. How Klanish of you.

Anonymous said...

Maybe he meant that minority areas have a history of being suppressed in regards to voting and Texas has a really bad track record of trying to suppress minority voters? Oh wait, never mind, it’s the old blame the poor/minorities/women because they should be able to overcome centuries of systemic barriers with boot straps or something. Good thing the Dems are pushing Biden, a candidate who has a track record of working with racists, attacking a woman of color and cutting social programs while supporting overzealous criminal laws that targeted minorities. 🤨

Anonymous said...

The last “voter” depicted turned out NOT TO BE ELIGIBLE TO VOTE !

Anonymous said...

The Voter who would not be denied.... you might want to update your glowing account.
“ That's a man who knows the Power of the Ballot and he puts anyone who found it "too inconvenient" to get to the polls to shame.”
“Hero of the Day” only if you want people voting who are not eligible. Only thing that comes to mind is CONVICTED FELON. Guess what? I don’t wan5 him voting.

Murray Newman said...

Anon 6:47 p.m.,

I'm kind of guessing by the tone of your comment that there are probably large segments of the community that you "don't want voting."

So, how about the voter in front of him? A lot of people waited for a long time to vote and that means something despite your mocking. I get that you are probably just feeling angry and depressed that all indicators are going to be for another Dem sweep in November. It's part of the backlash against Trump and his disciples.

Anonymous said...

Aside from the likely racist former comment, it actually could be because of its location. There was an article that said both parties were given the same amount of voting machines and each machine couldn't cross party lines. I highly don't there was a high Republican turnout in 3rd Ward.

Anonymous said...

Accusing people of racism or sexism is low level analysis. And accusing voters of anti-woman sexism in a race where women got 79% of the vote is just dumb. Get some better takes.

Anonymous said...

If you’re race baiting, I am not going for it. He was termed not legally able to vote. You think he forgot his ID? No, I can easily check, but to you, he is still your Hero and the reason he is trying to vote is apparently irrelevant.

Anonymous said...

Simple GOOGLE search, yep, convicted FELON. Praise on, Murray. Are you for everyone including those ineligible voting? How’s that working for Harris County. Yes, I am a Trump Supporter and good luck with Biden, you’ll need it.

Anonymous said...

Here’s your Hero of the Day. If you have the balls to print this.

https://thetexan.news/exclusive-last-in-line-voter-in-harris-county-was-not-eligible-to-vote-under-texas-law/

Murray Newman said...

Anon 7:02,
I have the balls to print the link to the article that you bravely posted anonymously.

I'm going to go ahead and assume those were your comments at 6:02 p.m. and 6:19 p.m. You seem to have a common theme of thoroughly enjoying pointing out that an African American man who waited for seven hours to vote, turned out to be ineligible to vote. Do you ever stop to examine why you enjoy that so much?

Anonymous said...

What I thoroughly enjoy is pointing out that people Who throw the term “hero” around should perhaps do a little fact checking themselves before going out on a limb and looking foolish. Do you think this is the first time he has voted since his 1995 conviction which made him a convicted felon? You’re more naive that I would have imagined if the answer is yes. Oh yea, you’re still doing the race baiting. Not working.

Murray Newman said...

Anon 8:42 p.m.,

Get over yourself with your race-baiting allegations. I'm guessing this isn't the first time you've been accused of sounding like a closeted Klan member.

I'm sorry you didn't like my use of the term "hero," but grow up. I'm sure plenty of other people, who were not felons, stood in line for a similar amount of time. Would you feel better if I disqualified him as "Hero of the Day" and gave the award to the second runner up? There is no monetary prize.

I was basically trying to point out that I thought it was great that people valued their vote enough to stand in line for that long. Jesus. I didn't realize it would offend your delicate sensibilities so much. You are really getting way too upset about what I wrote.

Anonymous said...

Maybe if you met a real honest to goodness HERO, you would appreciate what it meant, standing in line to illegally vote doesn’t qualify in all but the most liberal minds. You get over yourself, obviously no one reads your drivel anymore anyway. Wonder why? I used to enjoy reading your Blog but for the last couple of years, nothing but whining about some has-been attorneys and pan handlers passing away. Deleting you and you’re lame blog.

Murray Newman said...

Anon 5:16 p.m.,

I've met plenty of heroes in my time, thanks. And according to stat counter, I have just as many readers as ever, if not more, so don't worry about me.

Feel free to move on. You won't be missed. You were really annoying.